How many visiting tourists in a year is enough?

**Me Jamie, your host, I am English and I have lived in Hong Kong for 52 years - I know the place.**
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What is too many tourists yearly | 70 million? 100 million?

The Number of “Tourists” visiting Hong Kong Annually

I have lived in Hong Kong 52 years and have been heavily involved in tourism since 2010, so I have an opinion on this subject

Overtourism is becoming a bit of a talking point in many cities worldwide and I can absolutely sympathise with the residents of these cities because Hong Kong has basically had this issue since 2003 when in response to SAR’S decimating tourism arrivals here, the Government made a decision that has totally changed the nature of tourism in Hong Kong over the past 20 years.

It is getting a little out of hand here in Hong Kong with the daily headlines dominated by the overtourism subject and there is dissent within the Government as to whether overtourism is good or bad and I would strongly suggest that the Hong Kong residents are very unhappy about it.

The decision the Hong Kong Government made in 2003 was simple, International Tourism arrival numbers might take years to recover from SAR’S but the solution was and still is on our doorstep, 1.3 billion potential Mainland Chinese Tourists (although the actual number was reset to about 300 million!)

So the Hong Kong Government petitioned the Mainland Chinese Government to set up what they call the IVS scheme, which was simply to allow individual visitors to travel to Hong Kong without being part of an official tour group and with minimal bureaucracy. So, 4 cities where initially selected from Guangdong Province and another 45 had been added by 2007 making 49 which has now grown to 59 cities as of May 2024 and the rest is history.

2002 visitors - total | 16,566,382 with 41% coming from Mainland China

2004 visitors - total | 21,810,630 with 56% coming from Mainland China
2018 visitors - total | 65, 147,555 with 78% coming from Mainland China

In 2016 the Hong Kong Government had forecast that Hong Kong would have 100 million tourists in 2023 and I imagine that 85% of them would have been from Mainland China, as we all know Covid put paid to that forecast but honestly I absolutely believe we would have gone past 100 million.

In 2013 the Hong Kong Government and the Hong Kong Tourism Board commissioned a major study on whether Hong Kong had the capacity to handle 70 million tourists a year, the report which is almost 50 pages is very detailed and very valid 11 years on and yes apparently Hong Kong has the capacity based on the traditional tourism model in 2013 which did not factor in social media and it’s effect on tourism, things in that respect have changed dramatically, on the Mainland Chinese Instagram style platform Xiaohongshu (or little red book) a single post from an influencer on a cafe in Hong Kong (no matter the location) will have thousands of people turn up there the next day.

I need to stress that up until 2019 a lot of Hong Kong residents understood completely the economic benefits to Hong Kong to the massive influx of Mainland Chinese IVS scheme visitors (mainly from adjoining provinces in Mainland China) who basically came to shop for luxury products (they were cheaper here based on the difference in the tax systems + a relatively stable exchange rate) they also believed that they could absolutely rely on the quality of goods sold in Hong Kong (Baby Powder scandal) so all in all the crowds were tolerated (ish).

The underlying issue which is talked about and is absolutely a factor is the cultural differences between Hong Kong Chinese and Mainland Chinese, I have never seen anything unusual about that, I am from Yorkshire in England and we think we are superior to most people in a very down to earth way!

These cultural issues occur in every country in the world so I will not dwell too much on that, there are plenty of articles on it with a simple google search, human nature is what it is.

Low Quality Tours | Low Cost Tours | Budget Tours | Zero Fare Tours

A fairly typical Mainland Chinese Tour Group, there was about 30 of them, most wearing hats and they where fascinated by the Peninsula Hotel behind me! I took this in November 2023

So what has changed since 2019 other than Covid?

taxes in China on luxury items have been revised and due to loopholes and such Mainland Chinese customers now purchase luxury goods online or simply bypass Hong Kong and go shopping in other Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Malayasia with the added benefit that they are interesting places to visit in their own right!
The exchange rate between the Hong Kong and Mainland Chinese currencies is very unfavourable to shoppers and tourists from China.
social media has changed dramatically, young people in particular in China are very social media savvy and it does not matter if the most famous social media sites are unavailable in China, they have their own, many with hundreds of millions of followers, although Hong Kong is interesting too many from the Mainland it is close to 27 years since the handover and they have realised that the world is very big and full of very interesting places to visit and now Hong Kong is just one place out of 100 that they would like to visit and coupled with that, these young folk are only interested in “hidden gems” “secret spots” and “Instagram worthy spots” (I hate all of these terms) and it can cause problems if 500 of them all turn up at once to photograph a street art wall and they have no idea that standing in the middle of a road is going to cause traffic jams and such.
coupled with a change of economic conditions in China and the chipping away of disposable income, a lot of IVS tourists from China do not want to join a tour group, they want to explore on their own, they find hotel prices in Hong Kong to be sky high compared to China so they are more than happy to travel in from nearby provinces on the high speed trains and just shuttle backwards and forwards for a few days - they find that even a cup of coffee here is too expensive, so in a nutshell, they wander around aimlessly for a few hours taking selfies and no, not spending, which rather oddly has come as a surprise to Hong Kong Government Officials who meticulously planned for everything, except for them not spending money.
this becomes an issue because a very high % of travellers from China come here as part of an organised tour group (that is a real can of worms, best left for another day) where they pay a minimal amount (competition amongst tour companies is cut throat) for a 2 or 3 day tour, are put up in a less than a 5 star hotel, eat lunch boxes and such from cheap restaurants and are herded around like cattle with red, white, orange or yellow baseball caps and a flag waving tour guide to ensure no one gets lost and finally, they are taken to jewellery shops to buy crappy jewellery and such, by all accounts not a terribly enlightening or quality tourism experience, in China they are called Zero Fare Tours
so if you have not put 2 and 2 together, 80% of our tourists who are now coming to Hong Kong from Mainland China are actually not spending very much at all, so attitudes towards them by local residents are changing and to make matters worse the Government has a PR problem because it’s whole policy at this point in time with regards to tourism here is simply to bring in more and more visitors from Mainland China., not a happy situation at all

Thanks to Joel for this nugget which highlights **exactly** the problem of **overtourism** when you get too many low budget travellers, I would hope the Tourism Authorities kept track of these sorts of statistics with our regional competitors

Government Tourism Officials and Lawmakers are in a bind

"We can't allow tourists to have low-quality experiences. That wouldn't be ideal. Tourists need to eat, play, and buy happily for a good vacation experience," he said. "But are the mainland tourists having a good experience?"

This was said by a lawmaker recently in 2024

It was the Government who created these low cost tours, the fact is, Hong Kong is still much more expensive than Mainland China for pretty much everything, low cost tours attract low budget tourists and now all of these IVS (Individual Visit Scheme) travellers find Hong Kong to be simply too expensive, hence their refusal to stay in local hotels or eat in nice restaurants or even shop… just what is a Government to do? I often think that they are under the illusion that they can order Hong Kong residents to like and fully embrace visitors with open arms no matter what their country of origin.

The Government is finally waking up to the fact that images of large low cost tour groups being herded around all the tourist sites is not good optics and it is having an effect on Hong Kong’s reputation as being a luxury holiday destination after all the slogan by the Hong Kong Tourism Board and other Government Departments for a very long time now is “Hong Kong - Asia’s World City”

in addition I always thought this quote summed up Hong Kong nicely

“Hong Kong one of the world’s most sophisticated cities, so it’s no wonder this gateway to Asia excels at delivering the five-star experiences, service and facilities that today’s affluent clients demand — from legendary hotels to exquisite Michelin fine dining, luxury shopping, bespoke tailoring, pampering spa treatments and internationally renowned arts and culture.”

…. according to the Hong Kong press in 2024 (and Government Officials I might add) this wonderfully utopian vision of Hong Kong does not quite mesh with many thousands of low quality tourists clogging up all the famous tourist attractions on a daily basis.

So that is where we stand today, Hong Kong is absolutely suffering from overtourism and has been for 20 years from my perspective and the Tourism Minister (and many others I might add) is absolutely set on expanding Hong Kong as a destination for Mainland Chinese Visitors which could well mean that high spending tourists from around the world, may just give us a miss.

ps. I used to travel a lot to China in the 1980’s and 1990’s and they are lovely, lovely people over the border in China and personally I think that the Governments policy on these low cost tours needs to be looked at very closely, they do not deserve to be herded around like cattle but I seriously doubt anything at all will change.

One final point before I leave you to ponder, Singapore which is often compared to Hong Kong as a quality tourism destination (there are many similarities) well, they had 18.5 million visitors in 2018, Hong Kong had 65 million visitors, I rather suspect Singapore does not have an overtourism issue.

So there you have it.

Learn More - Hong Kong - Asia‛s World City by Brand Hong Kong

Learn More - Zero Fare (low cost) Group Tours to Hong Kong from Mainland China